We all know change is a constant, but in capital markets technology, it often arrives only after years of anticipation. This year could be very different. As 2026 gathers steam, several different types of risk are developing that could dramatically reshape the landscape: i) geopolitical changes which may severely impact the USD’s reserve‑currency dominance, ii) the long-promised transition to tokenisation and same-day settlement, and iii) the accelerating capabilities of AI. These are three different paradigms of disruption—a possible threat, a delayed inevitability, and a transformational force unfolding at speed.
While capital markets typically evolve slowly, due to legacy infrastructure, regulatory complexity, and the need for cross-counterparty coordination, the environment around us is now shifting faster than the industry’s traditional risk models are designed for.
The firms that will navigate this period most effectively will be those with operating models that allow them to forecast how the entire business will react under different scenarios. This includes traditional market value-based risk management, collateral and liquidity models, and how operational effectiveness adapts to the new paradigms.
Three Visible Threats
The biggest macro threat is that of a change in the USD’s role as the global reserve currency. Even a moderate diversification of reserve holdings could disrupt collateral markets, funding flows, and global asset allocation. Although a big shift may not occur immediately, the risk is more plausible than at any time in many decades. Asset managers are increasingly modelling scenarios in which Treasury demand softens and collateral hierarchies evolve.
Tokenisation is long‑discussed, slow-moving, yet steadily progressing. The hype has faded, but the underlying infrastructure has matured. Tokenisation may finally be close to breaking through with critical mass, compressing settlement cycles, lowering operational costs, and altering the dynamics of liquidity provision.
AI, however, is not hypothetical; it is already impacting every layer of the capital markets stack—from anomaly detection and predictive modelling to code generation and trade lifecycle automation. The question is not whether AI will transform the industry, but how quickly firms can integrate it and how resilient their operating models are to the change it imposes.
Second‑Order Risks
AI brings significant second-order risks, primarily labour‑market disruption which will affect the broader economic and trading outlook. The automation of analytical and operational tasks will displace roles across the front, middle, and back office. Even modest headcount reduction across the wider economy will translate into growing unemployment that results in lower consumption, rising government borrowing (lower tax receipts, higher welfare), credit deterioration, and negative market sentiment.
Conclusion: The Priority Is Adaptability and Resilience
The next few years may reshape capital markets more profoundly than the last decade. Uncertainty is unavoidable, vulnerability is not. The key is expanding business forecasting and stress testing beyond portfolio P&L.
Resilience requires modelling a wide array of factors, including technology dependencies, workforce exposure, counterparty fragility, internal operational vulnerabilities, cash‑flow solvency in tighter settlement cycles, and collateral liquidity under shifting market structures.
Firms that strengthen their organisational, portfolio, and liquidity resilience will not only withstand the coming changes but find opportunity within them.
This is an article from The Financial Technologist: Influence List - page number: 96
